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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-10-22T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-10-22T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9539/-1
CME Note: Relatively faint partial halo CME associated with long duration C4.5 flare from AR2434.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-10-24T18:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-10-24T21:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2 

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-10-22T08:09Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 600km/s
Longitude (deg): W029
Latitude (deg): N00
Half-angular width (deg): 56

Notes: Expecting a G1 minor storm late on the 24th or early 25th. Low risk stronger.
Space weather advisor: Mark Seltzer

Lead Time: 41.93 hour(s)
Difference: -2.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-10-23T00:30Z

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